A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
